More than 7 million Venezuelans have left their country in the past decade.
Once one of the wealthiest countries in Latin America, most of the Venezuelans who left were looking to escape the ongoing political and economic crisis. Food and medicine insecurity is rampant and President Nicolás Maduro’s authoritarian government—through mismanagement, corruption, and forceful anti-humanitarian tactics—has plunged the country into a spiral of poverty and increased violence, according to news reports.
John Twichell, lecturer and director of the Latin American Studies Program at the University of Miami College of Arts and Sciences, shared his views on the Venezuelan crisis.
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What were the origins of the challenges Venezuela faces?
The origins of these challenges are remarkably intertwined and can be traced to Venezuela’s oil-dependent economy and the deterioration in its bilateral relations with the United States. Bookended by the socialist governments of presidents Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s relations with the U.S. have been increasingly hostile for the past 25 years, since 1999.
Chávez’s socialist ideology, quite anti-capitalist and anti-U.S., propelled him to the presidency of Venezuela at a strategically opportune time for a country with an economy solely reliant on oil exports. Throughout the duration of his leadership international oil prices steadily increased to record levels, which funded Chávez’s redistributive domestic policies and his assertive foreign policies that gained him admiration and respect within the Caribbean and Latin America and elsewhere in the global South, yet oftentimes found him at odds with the U.S.
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What are the challenges Venezuela faces now?
Going into 2024, Venezuela faces challenges on the economic, political, and humanitarian fronts.
When Chávez died in 2013 and was succeeded by Maduro as president, Maduro inherited what by then was a much weaker Venezuelan economy, made so due in large part to Chávez’s excess borrowing from abroad, mishandling of government finances, and failure to reinvest windfall oil revenues in other productive sectors which could have promoted diversification and lessened oil dependency.
Moreover, Maduro was much less fortunate in terms of international oil prices, as they began what would be a steady decline to historic record lows over the 2010s, thus putting tremendous economic pressure on the Maduro government which rapidly turned to manipulation of democratic institutions, oppression, and violent repression to maintain its hold on power.
For those reasons already having been made the target of economic sanctions by the U.S. and other actors in the international community, Maduro nevertheless carried out Venezuela’s 2019 presidential election with impunity under widely believed measures of fraud and declared himself the winner by a wide margin. In response, the U.S. and other actors refused to acknowledge the election results, or that Maduro remains the legitimate president of Venezuela.
Additionally, the Trump administration imposed stricter “maximum pressure” international sanctions on Venezuela, essentially cutting it off from international markets. While President Joe Biden initially upheld Trump’s sanctions policies toward the Maduro government, the onset of Russia’s war in Ukraine launched in February 2022 and its resultant supply shocks to the international economy have prompted Biden to reconsider sanctions.
Instead, Biden has sought to negotiate a lessening of the degree of sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector and its access to its foreign reserves in exchange for Maduro paving the way to free and fair presidential elections, which are due to be held sometime in 2024 in Venezuela.
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Why are so many Venezuelans abandoning their country?
The abandonment and exodus by Venezuelans from their own country, some 7 million over the past decade, to neighboring countries in the Caribbean, Latin America, and the U.S., is explained by the widescale humanitarian crisis, intertwined with the economic and political crisis.
First, it must be pointed out that Maduro’s illegitimate second term as president coincided with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, hyperinflation, and a fiscal crisis of epic proportions in Venezuela.
Understandably so, widescale protests erupted in the streets that were met with brutal repression, state-sponsored violence, and extrajudicial imprisonments and killings carried out by the security forces kept under Maduro’s firm grip. To the ongoing threat of such state-sponsored human rights violations must be added the basic realities that conditions on the ground in both the countryside and the cities have essentially become unlivable throughout Venezuela, devoid of access to such basic human necessities as food, potable water, electricity, and medication.
In addition, the rapidly expanding illicit economy led by drug traffickers and other criminals, many with apparent ties to corrupt security forces, pose a threat to everyday Venezuelans, whether in terms of human trafficking or personal safety. In summary, these are just some of the reasons why Venezuelans are fleeing their country. The international community has made a concerted effort to minimize the effects of sanctions on the Venezuelan people through aid delivery efforts, including food, yet the humanitarian crisis is undeniable and insurmountable under Maduro.
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Elections will be held at some point this year. What are the chances that they will be fair and open?
Maduro, who is apparently now more unpopular than ever among the Venezuelan electorate, continues to manipulate democratic institutions and electoral conditions in a variety of cunning ways, including the monitoring of voter attitudes and decisions, with advanced technology and artificial intelligence.
If the 2019 presidential election and the Maduro government’s conduct are any indicator, the chances that the 2024 election will be free and fair are not high, despite recent negotiations with the U.S. in Barbados. There is the possibility that renewed negotiations between Maduro and the political opposition could lead to a gradual resolution of the protracted political power struggle. The unanswered question is whether Maduro is using such negotiations as a tactic to delay if not outright prevent a return to internationally monitored free and fair elections, and democracy in general, in Venezuela.
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Why did Venezuela hold an election (or referendum) for the dissident Maria Conchita Machado, and then ban her from office for 15 years? Does she present a threat?
The terms and scheduling of the opposition presidential primary held this past October were negotiated and tentatively agreed to earlier in 2023 between the Maduro government and the opposition. It was brokered more recently by the U.S. in exchange for the lifting of sanctions on the oil industry and bonds trading, which helps to explain why the primary was actually permitted to go forward.
Machado absolutely poses a threat to Maduro because she is popular in Venezuela, including her reform-oriented platform that is viewed with optimism by the U.S. and the wider international community, all of whom are eager to end the humanitarian crisis and reengage with a renewed capitalist and democratic Venezuela. But again, the Maduro government’s shifting positions on these unfolding events surrounding the 2024 election suggests it is attempting to have it both ways in its negotiations with the U.S. on the lifting of sanctions in exchange for liberalization of the electoral conditions.
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Venezuela has threatened with taking over lands in neighboring Guyana that are rich in oil. Does Venezuela have the right to do so, and would it be feasible for them since they have ruined their own oil production?
The territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana over the Essequibo region dates back to the late-19th century and their respective formation as internationally recognized sovereign states. By most accounts, the timing of the Maduro government’s having recently revisited the dispute with hints of revanchism indicate to most that it is a domestic political tactic intended to appeal to nationalist sentiments among Venezuelans in a presidential election year, including the December referendum held that resulted overwhelmingly in Venezuelans being in favor of annexation of Essequibo.
Yet while the International Court of Justice will be reviewing the case and the international community, Brazil, the U.K., and the U.S. included, are taking the matter seriously in terms of regional security, the consensus is that Maduro will not force the issue militarily, as indicated by the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC)-brokered agreement to peacefully resolve it, struck verbally between the two respective presidents during their face-to-face meeting held in St. Vincent and the Grenadines on Dec. 15, 2023.
