Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management MeteorologySunday, May 5, 2024
...Patchy Fog to Lift Shortly After Sunrise Along North Florida...High Pressure Over the Carolina's to Bring Warm Conditions Statewide...Sea Breeze Boundaries Moving Inland To Bring Isolated to Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms This Afternoon and Evening Along Suwannee Valley and I-75 Corridor...Strong Thunderstorms Capable of Producing Lightning, Gusty Winds and Heavy Downpours Possible...Localized Ponding of Water Possible Within Heavy Downpours...Patchy Fog Possible Again Overnight Along Big Bend and Northeast Florida...Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents Along Panhandle and Several East Coast Beaches...Minor Flooding Continues for Santa Fe River at Three Rivers Estates...
Updated at 10:18 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
| No Threat | Low Threat | Medium Threat | High Threat |
| Lightning | Damaging Wind/Hail | Tornado | Flash Flooding | Fog (Overnight) | Wildfire | River Flooding | Rip Currents |
|
Locally Suwannee Valley & I-75 Corridor Statewide |
Iso. I-75 Corridor |
Locally Iso. I-75 Corridor & Interior Western Peninsula |
Locally Suwannee Valley Big Bend & Northeast Florida Iso. North Florida |
West-Central & Interior Peninsula |
Santa Fe River at Three Rivers Estates |
E. Panhandle & Southeast Florida W. Panhandle & East-Central Florida West Coast & Northeast Florida |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Patchy fog will quickly lift and dissipate this morning after sunrise across the Panhandle and Big Bend. High pressure over the Carolina’s will dominate across the Sunshine State bringing warm conditions throughout the day. This daytime heating from the dominating high pressure will give way to the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes developing and pushing inland this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected to develop late in the afternoon and continue throughout the evening along the I-75 corridor, across the Suwannee Valley and along the western Peninsula (20-55% chance of rain). While organized severe weather is not anticipated, some thunderstorms may be strong at times during the peak heating hours of the day. These stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing lightning, locally gusty winds and heavy downpours. Increased moisture, along with daytime heating processes, will give way to heavy downpours locally within shower and thunderstorm activity, which may lead to localized instances of ponding of water and nuisance flooding. High temperatures will climb well into the 80s statewide, with the western half of the state reaching 90-degrees with plenty of heating. The sea breeze along the coastlines will help to keep coastal areas and beaches a few degrees cooler compared to inland regions this afternoon. The Atlantic sea breeze pushing onshore may create wind gusts upwards of 20 mph at times along the coastline throughout the day.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to linger through the evening and early overnight hours along the I-75 corridor and western Peninsula as activity dissipates and moves back towards the coastlines. A few lingering showers may continue along or near the coastline over the adjacent waters through the overnight hours (15-30% chance of rain). Saturated grounds from rainfall and calm winds overnight will allow for areas of patchy fog to develop early Monday morning along the Big Bend and Suwannee Valley. Low temperatures in the middle 60s to middle 70s can be expected overnight.
Rip Currents: Onshore winds will create a moderate to high risk for rip currents along Panhandle, East-Central and Southeast Florida beaches. A low risk for rip currents can be expected along Northeast and West-Central Florida beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Breezy winds along Atlantic-facing Key beaches will create an ocean swell offshore, allowing for wave heights of 4-6’ to develop throughout the day. A localized ocean swell along Southeast Florida will create wave heights of 4-5’ this morning before slowly weakening. All other beaches statewide can expect wave heights near 1-3’.
Red Tide has not been observed at or above background levels over the past week.
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk of coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Patchy fog will quickly lift and dissipate just after sunrise this morning. Drier air remains settled within interior Central Florida, which will allow for relative humidity values to fall near critical thresholds by the late afternoon hours (upper 30%). Southeasterly winds will remain light near 5-10 mph throughout the day, with wind gusts upwards of 10-12 mph. Red Flag conditions are not expected due to winds falling below the red flag criteria. As the sea breeze develops throughout the day and moves inland, isolated to scattered thunderstorms can be expected to develop across interior regions, then move towards the coastlines. The sea breeze may create locally gusty winds at times. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally gusty winds and lightning, which may contribute to the igniting or the further spreading of wildfires. Widespread rainfall is not expected, especially over areas experiencing abnormally dry (emerging drought) to moderate drought conditions. Areas of patchy fog may be possible overnight and early Monday morning across the Big Bend and Suwannee River Valley. Foggy conditions may further reduce visibility where there are ongoing wildfires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 43 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 2360 acres.
Drought: High pressure has continued to yield relatively dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures statewide over the last week, leading to high evaporative demand and locally decreasing streamflow. Several recent brush fires have been noted and there has been an increased concern for more as short-term dryness and drought continue. Abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions have expanded along further northward and southward across Central and Southern portions of the Peninsula on this week’s drought monitor update and now stretch from the from the I-4 and south to the I-75 and from the West to the East Coast. Moderate Drought conditions have been introduced to eastern portions of the region from Brevard County to Palm Beach County and surrounding Lake Okeechobee as rainfall deficits continue to increase. Above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall expected across the region over the next week will likely exacerbate drought conditions.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 349 (+11) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are four Florida counties (Highlands, Indian River, Sarasota and St. Lucie) with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected to develop later this afternoon and evening along the sea breeze collision along the I-75 corridor and throughout the interior western Peninsula. Rainfall totals upwards of 1-2” are possible, with locally higher totals upwards 3” in some locations. Heavy downpours may be possible within heavy rainfall at times, leading to localized instances of ponding of water across urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas. Any slow-moving or near-stationary showers and thunderstorms could also lead to localized instances of flooding at times.
Riverine Flooding: A River Flood Warning remains in effect along the Santa Fe River at Three Rivers Estates as minor flooding is occurring and is forecast to continue into the upcoming week. Portions of several Big Bend and Suwannee Valley rivers (including several portions of the Suwannee River) remain in Action Stage (bank-full); however, water levels are continuing to fall. While rivers that see locally higher rainfall totals across the basins today could see local rises in water levels, riverine flooding is not anticipated. There are no additions riverine flood concerns at this time. For more details, please visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 14.09 feet, which is within the operational band and 0.56 feet above normal for this time of year.
