Florida Republicans have a larger voter registration advantage than either of the main political parties have held in the Sunshine State in nearly 40 years ahead of the 2024 presidential race.
The Republican lead in Florida, long viewed as one of the nation's most crucial battleground states, has grown in recent years as GOP lawmakers solidify power in the state and pass staunchly conservative legislation surrounding LGBTQ+ and reproductive rights.
Although President Joe Biden only narrowly lost the state to former President Donald Trump in 2020, Republicans have seen stronger results in recent elections, raising questions about whether Democrats can carry the state in November.
New election data reveals that Republicans have passed a major milestone in their voter registration, holding a lead of 851,417 voters.
This is the largest advantage either political party has had since 1988, when Democrats ended the year with a 903,671-voter lead over Republicans, according to data from the Florida Division of Elections.
Republicans have steadily seen their registration advantage grow over Democrats in recent years. In 2020, the Democrats had a lead of 97,215 voters. But by 2021, Republicans held an advantage of 43,102 voters. That number grew to 383,954 in 2022 and 779,701 by the end of 2023.
The new voter registration data underscores a growing challenge for Democrats in Florida.
Carol S. Weissert, emerita professor of political science at Florida State University, told Newsweek on Wednesday that Republicans' growing influence in Florida has been happening for years, noting that Democrats have not held control of the state legislature or the governor's office since the 1990s.
"There were many conservatives still registered as Democrats over the years who voted consistently for Republicans and have only recently changed their registration. Another factor in the Republican growth in registration is the difference in party organization," she said.
Florida Democrats have dealt with infighting and have struggled to "put together a sustained, coherent effort to reach voters," Weissert said. They need to "stop fighting each other" and work on a full-time effort to win voters, particularly young voters, she added.
"The current chair is making an effort but it is a daunting task. And, importantly, we need good candidates. The second DeSantis race they put up a former Republican governor, turned Democratic congressman (and he was an Independent for a while). They have never developed much a farm team for candidates. They need some stellar candidates to compete," she said.
Experts have pointed to Republican gains among Hispanic voters near Miami and the arrival of more conservative transplants from the Northeast and Midwest to Florida for the Republicans' surge in the state, which threatens to keep Democrats out of power if they do not reverse these trends.
"From a presidential standpoint, I think we'll win pretty big here. Obviously, we're going to continue to work hard on the U.S. Senate race and down ballot contests. But I think it's clear we're a firmly red state now," Florida Republican Party chair Evan Power told The Palm Beach Post.
Newsweek reached out to the Florida Republican Party and Florida Democratic Party for comment via their media contact forms.
Florida Delivered Wins to Republicans in Recent Elections
During the 2020 presidential election, Trump won by 3.3 percentage points, despite losing the election as a whole as other swing states, including some not won by Democrats in decades, flipped to Biden.
But in the 2022 midterms, Republicans handily won statewide races, a warning sign to Democrats. In the Senate race, Sen. Marco Rubio easily won reelection against former Rep. Val Demings by a 16.4 percent margin. Meanwhile, Gov. Ron DeSantis won reelection against former Gov. Charlie Crist by 19.4 percentage points.
Florida held some municipal elections on Tuesday, which saw more positive results for Republicans. For instance, a candidate backed by the Republican Party won the mayoral race in Delray Beach, a city that backed Biden by more than 30 points in 2020.
Notably, Democrats did not hold a presidential primary in the state while Republicans did, potentially giving the GOP a turnout advantage that could have affected local races.
Update 3/20/24 10:13 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
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Andrew Stanton is a Newsweek weekend reporter based in Maine. His role is reporting on U.S. politics and social issues. ... Read more
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